Old Moore’s Almanack: World Event Predictions 21st April

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Apologies to all readers as I have been busy and missed this write up but better late than never!

The new moon on the 21st April yields the following predictions:

  • There will be violent arguments in the Commons with backbench revolts and a high chance of part splits.
  • The economy remains positive with continuing buoyancy at the cheaper end of the housing market.
  • There is rising tension in Southeast Asia with chances of a military coup in Thailand or a short-lived border conflict with Burma and between Vietnam and Cambodia.
  • The civil war in Somalia threatens to cause much wider regional war.

Let’s see what happened:

  • There will be violent arguments in the Commons with backbench revolts and a high chance of part splits. – This seems a little wide of the mark.  There are always arguments in parliament but nothing of the magnitude that this seems to predict.
  • The economy remains positive with continuing buoyancy at the cheaper end of the housing market– This is almost the opposite of the facts.  The economy is struggling and we have hit a double dip recession, that is we poked our head into positive growth before the economy contracted again.  A cynical man mght say that we never left recession but the hundreds of billions of pounds worth of quantative easing that the Bank of England/ government ‘released’ into the economy artifically massaged the figures but the underlying issues never went away and that we are heading for a protracted downturn that is going to hurt the average family in the street.
  • There is rising tension in Southeast Asia with chances of a military coup in Thailand or a short-lived border conflict with Burma and between Vietnam and Cambodia – this again is a miss.  If there has been such a conflict or tension then is is bubbling under the surface for it has not made any of the major news organisations.
  • The civil war in Somalia threatens to cause much wider regional war – again I see no evidence of this.  Obviously Somalia is a failed or at the very least failing country and it does have an affect on its neighbours and especially the sea routed off its coast where Somali pirates are terrorizing passing ships but there is nothing to suggest that anything much has changed recently.

This is a very poor showing for Old Moore.  I will no dwell on the above but if anyone disagrees with what I have written please feel free to comment.

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Friday 13th April 2012

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Once again, welcome to the Ides and for the second time this year it is a Friday the 13th!  Fear not you friggatriskaidekaphobiacs for there is only one more to go before the end of the year (July if you want to prepare your cleansing rituals!).  For the second Ides in a row I have planned to be off work (O.K. the previous Ides was for a funeral and ended up ill in bed) a day off in lieu of the Easter Bank Holidays which saw me at work for both Bank Holidays – Good Friday and Easter Monday.  This Ides however went a little more to plan.

My eldest was off school and so I had promised to talk her to the cinema as a treat (the fact that I enjoy going to the cinema too, had nothing to do with it!).  We went to see Pirates, In Adventure With Scientists the latest Aardman Animations feature length film.  My mini review is based on the fact that for certain sections of the film I was explaining what was going on to my eldest and so missed many of the subtleties of the script.  However, I thought it was excellent, if a little predictable but the humour was a mixture of subtle, slapstick and clever wordplay and definitely needs a second viewing.  Blu-ray ordered.

Afterwards we met my wife and youngest and booked our family holiday and week in Tenerife.  so a very successful and not at all unlucky day for our little quartet.

So what was happening in the world?

David Cameron visited Myanamar (or Burma as we still call it in Britain as we do not recognise the legitimacy of the military rule).  This is historic as I believe he is the first British Prime Minister to visit the country and it allows the British to look for the 25 unused Spitfires that were buried at the end of World War II.  By all accounts they are still in the crates they were shipped in, wrapped in wax and oil sheets to protect them from the elements, so hopefully they will still look like they did when they arrived in Burma nearly 70 years ago.  Fascinating.

Mount Etna erupted for the 6th time this year, making it one of its most active periods for many years.

Closer to home, the Royal Mail is accused of rationing stamps as the public snap up first class stamps before the price increases 25% from 48p for a first class letter to 60p.  A huge increase and because the design of the stamp doesn’t change a first class stamp bought for 48p is still a first class stamp when the price increases to 60p.  Hence the Royal Mail are attempting to prevent stockpiling at this crossover period.

There is also a possible deal in the fuel drivers talks.  The government have been accused of helping panic the public into buying fuel even though there is only a hint of industrial action and petrol is something that you can not stockpile (unlike stamps).  We will see how this pans out throughout the next few weeks and see if they do go on strike whether it brings the country to its knees or forces the resignation of a government minister.  Somehow I don’t think so.

Also, tying in with an earlier post, the first Raspberry Pis begun shipment.  I still haven’t decided if I am going to buy one or not.