Old Moore’s Almanack: World Event Predictions 20th May

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Apologies but due to personal commitments I am writing this up 2 weeks after the event so therefore please excuse anything I miss out.

This set of predictions revolve around the new moon on the 20th May (which just happened to be an eclipse).  Let us see what was predicted:

  • There are strong indications of buoyancy in the property market for the third month in a row.
  • The government will bring in fresh education reforms with new encouragement for independent schools and home-schooling.
  • The United States economy is entering a difficult period and it will experience foreign-policy reverses as it is forced to compromise in the Middle East and central Asia.
  • Egypt is experiencing deep instability and a threat from Islamic fundamentalists.
  • Severe weather conditions could predominate in the Southern Hemisphere.

Let us see how these predictions panned out:

  • There are strong indications of buoyancy in the property market for the third month in a row – Across all housing market indices there are no signs of buoyancy.  At best one could say they are stable but in most regions of the UK they are declining with only the London market bucking the trend and skewing the overall average.
  • The government will bring in fresh education reforms with new encouragement for independent schools and home-schooling – There doesn’t seem to be anything of great significance in the news except for a speech by the opposition leader Ed Miliband bemoaning vocational qualifications but no governmental reforms.
  • The United States economy is entering a difficult period and it will experience foreign-policy reverses as it is forced to compromise in the Middle East and central Asia – The US economy (as is the whole world) is definitely looking precarious, with poor jobs and output figure it certainly looks like the US will go for QE3 to attempt to stabilise the dollar in the maelstrom that is the current marco-economic climate.
  • Egypt is experiencing deep instability and a threat from Islamic fundamentalists – Egypt is still struggling to come to terms with the fallout from the Arab Spring and the overturning of Mubarack (who as I write this has just been sentenced to life imprisonment) on its steps to democracy.  Egypt is looking at its first free presidential elections in 30 years but the choice is not necessarily what one could hope for. The two leading candidates are Ahmed Shafiq who is tied to the Mubarak era regime and Mohammed Mursi leader of the Muslim brotherhood.  However Egypt is currently experiencing severe unrest and there has been accusations of voting irregularities so there may be a delay to the official announcement of candidates for the 16th June elections.
  • Severe weather conditions could predominate in the Southern Hemisphere – There does not seem to be anything in the news.

As I always say if there is anything you think I have missed or have been unfair in my representation of the news then feel free to comment.

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Old Moore’s Almanack: World Event Predictions 21st April

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Apologies to all readers as I have been busy and missed this write up but better late than never!

The new moon on the 21st April yields the following predictions:

  • There will be violent arguments in the Commons with backbench revolts and a high chance of part splits.
  • The economy remains positive with continuing buoyancy at the cheaper end of the housing market.
  • There is rising tension in Southeast Asia with chances of a military coup in Thailand or a short-lived border conflict with Burma and between Vietnam and Cambodia.
  • The civil war in Somalia threatens to cause much wider regional war.

Let’s see what happened:

  • There will be violent arguments in the Commons with backbench revolts and a high chance of part splits. – This seems a little wide of the mark.  There are always arguments in parliament but nothing of the magnitude that this seems to predict.
  • The economy remains positive with continuing buoyancy at the cheaper end of the housing market– This is almost the opposite of the facts.  The economy is struggling and we have hit a double dip recession, that is we poked our head into positive growth before the economy contracted again.  A cynical man mght say that we never left recession but the hundreds of billions of pounds worth of quantative easing that the Bank of England/ government ‘released’ into the economy artifically massaged the figures but the underlying issues never went away and that we are heading for a protracted downturn that is going to hurt the average family in the street.
  • There is rising tension in Southeast Asia with chances of a military coup in Thailand or a short-lived border conflict with Burma and between Vietnam and Cambodia – this again is a miss.  If there has been such a conflict or tension then is is bubbling under the surface for it has not made any of the major news organisations.
  • The civil war in Somalia threatens to cause much wider regional war – again I see no evidence of this.  Obviously Somalia is a failed or at the very least failing country and it does have an affect on its neighbours and especially the sea routed off its coast where Somali pirates are terrorizing passing ships but there is nothing to suggest that anything much has changed recently.

This is a very poor showing for Old Moore.  I will no dwell on the above but if anyone disagrees with what I have written please feel free to comment.