Old Moore’s Almanack: World Event Predictions 20th May

1 Comment

Apologies but due to personal commitments I am writing this up 2 weeks after the event so therefore please excuse anything I miss out.

This set of predictions revolve around the new moon on the 20th May (which just happened to be an eclipse).  Let us see what was predicted:

  • There are strong indications of buoyancy in the property market for the third month in a row.
  • The government will bring in fresh education reforms with new encouragement for independent schools and home-schooling.
  • The United States economy is entering a difficult period and it will experience foreign-policy reverses as it is forced to compromise in the Middle East and central Asia.
  • Egypt is experiencing deep instability and a threat from Islamic fundamentalists.
  • Severe weather conditions could predominate in the Southern Hemisphere.

Let us see how these predictions panned out:

  • There are strong indications of buoyancy in the property market for the third month in a row – Across all housing market indices there are no signs of buoyancy.  At best one could say they are stable but in most regions of the UK they are declining with only the London market bucking the trend and skewing the overall average.
  • The government will bring in fresh education reforms with new encouragement for independent schools and home-schooling – There doesn’t seem to be anything of great significance in the news except for a speech by the opposition leader Ed Miliband bemoaning vocational qualifications but no governmental reforms.
  • The United States economy is entering a difficult period and it will experience foreign-policy reverses as it is forced to compromise in the Middle East and central Asia – The US economy (as is the whole world) is definitely looking precarious, with poor jobs and output figure it certainly looks like the US will go for QE3 to attempt to stabilise the dollar in the maelstrom that is the current marco-economic climate.
  • Egypt is experiencing deep instability and a threat from Islamic fundamentalists – Egypt is still struggling to come to terms with the fallout from the Arab Spring and the overturning of Mubarack (who as I write this has just been sentenced to life imprisonment) on its steps to democracy.  Egypt is looking at its first free presidential elections in 30 years but the choice is not necessarily what one could hope for. The two leading candidates are Ahmed Shafiq who is tied to the Mubarak era regime and Mohammed Mursi leader of the Muslim brotherhood.  However Egypt is currently experiencing severe unrest and there has been accusations of voting irregularities so there may be a delay to the official announcement of candidates for the 16th June elections.
  • Severe weather conditions could predominate in the Southern Hemisphere – There does not seem to be anything in the news.

As I always say if there is anything you think I have missed or have been unfair in my representation of the news then feel free to comment.

Advertisements

Old Moore’s Almanack: World Event Predictions 6th April

Leave a comment

A quarter of the year has passed and we find ourselves in the month of April.  The Full moon fell on the 6th April and the first set of April’s predictions centre around its position in the heavens.  The main predictions are:

  • There will be concerns over the continuing rise of the prison population in the UK and the failure to cut the number of inmates.
  • There will be changes in working practises across the public sector with a new push to introduce effective technology and web-based services.
  • In the Middle-East, Iraq could enter a period of possible political disintegration which lasts until August.

Let us analyse this in a little more detail:

  • There will be concerns over the continuing rise of the prison population in the UK and the failure to cut the number of inmates – There are always worries about the rising prison populations probably mainly to do with the way crime is dealt with in the Western world, however there have been no rumblings in the press or in parliament about prison populations for many months now.  So this is a big miss.
  • There will be changes in working practises across the public sector with a new push to introduce effective technology and web-based services – Again nothing about this in the press, there maybe been a drive in the public sector to introduce effective technology and hopefully there always is, especially in these economic times, however it has not made the news agencies.  So again a big miss.
  • In the Middle-East, Iraq could enter a period of possible political disintegration which lasts until August – If this is happening it is in the early stages and as yet not made Western media or any news source I have yet found.  Again a big miss.

I would say that this is probably the worst set of predictions so far this year.  Three big misses.  We will not dwell on this and wait until the next set of predictions before we worry about how poor April was.