Old Moore’s Almanack: Horse Racing: June’s Results

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The horse racing predictions for the month of June cane found at the bottom of page 42 in my copy of Old Moore’s Almanack.  It states “Look out for a fairly local English trained horse at the Derby this year, whilst the favourite or possibly second favourite may be the winner of the Oaks.”

For those of you unfamiliar with English horse racing both of these races happens over the same meeting at Epsom race course in Surrey.  This year’s Oaks was held on the 1st June 2012 and was won by the Aidan O’Brien trained horse Was (ridden by Seamie Heffernan) and at 20-1 could hardly be called a favourite!  The full race card is here.

The Derby (the Queen’s favourite race) kicked off the weekend of Diamond Jubilee celebrations.  With only a field of 9 horses this was the smallest field since 1909 and the Queen was among 130,000 that saw the 8-13 favourite Camelot give Aidan O’Brien his latest Classics winner (he is heading for a clean sweep).  Camelot was ridden by Joseph O’Brien, Aidan’s son, also making history as the first father/son winners of the Derby.  The full race card can be found here.

Now the prediction stated that the winner would be a fairly local English trained horse.  What can be more English that a horse called ‘Camelot’ the legendary seat of King Arthur however Camelot (the horse) is trained in Ballydoyle, Ireland (not exactly local nor English).  If you want to be pedantic Camelot was reared at Highclere stud in Newbury, Berkshire but I would feel that is pushing the facts to fit the prediction.

Therefore I am afraid that Old Moore failed on both predictions this month although if you really want to be a pedant then the first half of the prediction doesn’t actually say that an English trained horse would win the Derby merely to look out for one!

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Old Moore’s Almanack: World Event Predictions 6th May

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The first set of predictions for the month of May centre around the full moon on 6th May.  Let us have a look at those predictions:

  • Optimistic trends continue and bold action is called for.
  • Security levels should be on maximum alert for attacks on the British government.
  • There is also a high rish of oil spills, especially in the western Atlantic or western Pacific.
  • Saudi Arabia enters a cycle of uncertainity which lasts until the end of the year and brings the country into conflict with Iran.
  • There could be cyber-attacks around the world and a serious interruption in traffic on the web.

Let us see how accurate those were:

  • Optimistic trends continue and bold action is called for – What does this even mean?  This is a statement not a prediction and a rather non-descript, un-quantifiable statement.  And to be frank I would say that the contrary is true.  With France eleccting her first Socialist government in thirty years, the Greek government on the point of collapse and general rejection of the austerity measures that are being put in place by various European governments there is a real sense of standing on the edge of a financial abyss.
  • Security levels should be on maximum alert for attacks on the British government. – The only attack on the British government has been from the British voters.  Despite (or perhaps because of) the low turnout at the polls the encumbent coalition parties took a real battering in the local elections.  Security levels probably are high (we are hosting the Olympics later this year) but nothing that has made the news.  However, again I think that this is Old Moore is looking at history to predict the future.  On the 11th May 1812 John Bellingham, a bankrupt mechant assassinated Spencer Perceval in the House of Commons.  The first, and only time a British Prime Minister (although strictly speaking the title Prime Minister was not in use for the Leader of the British government at the time) has been assassinated.  Spencer Perceval was shot through the heart and died within a few minutes; while Bellingham was executed one week later on the 18th May.  Interestingly one of John Bellingham’s decendants: Henry Bellingham is currently a Foreign Office minister and MP for North West Norfolk.
  • There is also a high rish of oil spills, especially in the western Atlantic or western Pacific. – Nothing that has made the news.
  • Saudi Arabia enters a cycle of uncertainity which lasts until the end of the year and brings the country into conflict with Iran. – I will wait and see on this.  The only major newsworthy story concerning Saudi Arabia was the revelation that the Al Qa’ida operative that the CIA have intercepted with the latest version of the underpants bomb was in fact a Saudi double agent that had been placed by the Saudi intelligence agency in a Yemeni cell.
  • There could be cyber-attacks around the world and a serious interruption in traffic on the web. – Not really cyber-attacks around the world but Virgin Media was forced to take its website office for an hour during a hack attack by the Anonymous Collective.  The Anonymous Collective targetted Virgin Media as Virgin Media became the first ISP in the UK to block users from accessing The Pirate Bay’s file sharing website.  The UK High Court has ordered the UK’s ISPs to prevent their users from accessing the Swedish website which hosts (among other files) pirated music and video infringing copyright of large media organisations.  Four other ISPs: Sky, Everything Everywhere, TalkTalk and O2 have also been ordered to prevent their customers accessing The Pirate Bay by this Friday while BT has requested ‘a few more weeks’ to consider its position. 

Once again if there was something I missed or you feel I have unfairly represented the news, please feel free to comment.

Old Moore’s Almanack: Horse Racing: May’s Results

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The May horse racing predictions can be found at the bottom of page 41 in my copy of Old Moore’s Almanack.  It simply states: ‘At Newmarket this year the 1,000 Guineas and 2,000 Guineas are likely to go to well-backed favourites‘.

The two races took place over the weekend of the 5th and 6th May 2012.  The 2,000 Guineas took place on Saturday 5th May 2012 and was indeed won by the favourite Camelot.  Camelot took the race from the 12-1 French Fifteen bu a neck and so became only the third favourite in the last 19 years to win the race.  Therefore credit where credit is due, Old Moore definitely should take the plaudits here.  The full race card can be found here.

The 1,000 Guineas took place the following day but there was no fairytale double for Old Moore.  The race was delayed by half an hour due to Gray Pearl being fatally injured in the stalls.  She had become wedged under the stalls and the vets put her down on welfare grounds after she suffered a spinal injury.

Homecoming Queen cruised to nine length victory in an understandably subdued meeting.  At 25-1 she should more accurately be described as an outsider and far from being a favourite, however if you are willing to back each way then the favourite Maybe (13-8) finished third.  The full race card can be found here

So one on the nose and one each way, I suppose one could describe this as a successful month for Old Moore.

Football Pool Forecast Week 18

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5th May 2012

Peterborough, Torquay, Sunderland, Darlington

The actual fixtures were:

    1. Peterborough no match for the Championship season ended last week
    2. Hereford v Torquay (League Two match)
    3. Fulham v Sunderland (Premier League match)
    4. Darlington no match for the Conference Premier League season ended last week.

The results were:

    1. Peterborough (0 points)
    2. Hereford 3 v Torquay 2 (1 point)
    3. Fulham 2Sunderland 1 (1 point – Played on Sunday 6th May 2012)
    4. Darlington (0 points)

The first thing to note is that the seasons are drawing to a close and not at the same time.  Old Moore yields forecasts until 19th May and starts again on the 4th August; this is outside of the seasons (some ended 28th April, others 5th May and most by 13th May).  So I will not include the last week of forecasts for this season as none of the teams will be playing.  This has already had its affect on this week’s fixtures with two of teams not playing and unfortunately the two that were playing did not conform to Old Moore’s predictions with two home wins.

Football Pool Forecast Week 17

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28th April 2012

Colchester, Hull, Charlton, Boston

The actual fixtures were:

    1. Colchester v Tranmere (League One match)
    2. West Ham v Hull  (Championship match)
    3. Preston v Charlton (League One match)
    4. Boston v Guiseley (Blue Square North match)

 

The results were:

    1. Colchester 4 v Transmere 2 (1 point)
    2. West Ham 2 v Hull 1 (1 point)
    3. Preston 2Charlton 2 (3 points)
    4. Boston 3 v Guiseley3 (3 points)

This set of fixtures has raised another important issue that I hadn’t truly given much thought about.  i.e. not every game that is played appears on the Pools and once again with Boston in the 6th tier of English football the draw that their game yielded is superfluous to whether one would win the jackpot.  This is something I will have to address next season.  But that aside two score draws in a week is a good haul of points.  Let’s see if it continues to the end of the seasons.

Football Pool Forecast Week 16

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21st April 2012

Hereford, Bolton, Kilmarnock, West Ham

The actual fixtures were:

    1. Hereford v Northampton Town (League Two match)
    2. Bolton v Swansea  (Premier League match)
    3. Hibernian v Kilmarnock (Scottish Premier League match)
    4. Leicester v West Ham (Championship match)

The results were:

    1. Hereford 0 v Northampton Town 0 (2 points)
    2. Bolton 1 v Swansea 1 (3 point)
    3. Hibernian 0 v Kilmarnock 1 (1 point – Played on Sunday 22nd April)
    4. Leicester 1 v West Ham 2 (1 point – Played on Monday 23rd April)

At the end of Saturday two games had been played and we had a draw and a no-score draw and I got quite excited.  But I was brought down to earth with the remaining two games and the Status Quo resumed.  This is not a strong subject for Old Moore but we will analyse it in detail when the seasons end.

Old Moore’s Almanack: World Event Predictions 21st April

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Apologies to all readers as I have been busy and missed this write up but better late than never!

The new moon on the 21st April yields the following predictions:

  • There will be violent arguments in the Commons with backbench revolts and a high chance of part splits.
  • The economy remains positive with continuing buoyancy at the cheaper end of the housing market.
  • There is rising tension in Southeast Asia with chances of a military coup in Thailand or a short-lived border conflict with Burma and between Vietnam and Cambodia.
  • The civil war in Somalia threatens to cause much wider regional war.

Let’s see what happened:

  • There will be violent arguments in the Commons with backbench revolts and a high chance of part splits. – This seems a little wide of the mark.  There are always arguments in parliament but nothing of the magnitude that this seems to predict.
  • The economy remains positive with continuing buoyancy at the cheaper end of the housing market– This is almost the opposite of the facts.  The economy is struggling and we have hit a double dip recession, that is we poked our head into positive growth before the economy contracted again.  A cynical man mght say that we never left recession but the hundreds of billions of pounds worth of quantative easing that the Bank of England/ government ‘released’ into the economy artifically massaged the figures but the underlying issues never went away and that we are heading for a protracted downturn that is going to hurt the average family in the street.
  • There is rising tension in Southeast Asia with chances of a military coup in Thailand or a short-lived border conflict with Burma and between Vietnam and Cambodia – this again is a miss.  If there has been such a conflict or tension then is is bubbling under the surface for it has not made any of the major news organisations.
  • The civil war in Somalia threatens to cause much wider regional war – again I see no evidence of this.  Obviously Somalia is a failed or at the very least failing country and it does have an affect on its neighbours and especially the sea routed off its coast where Somali pirates are terrorizing passing ships but there is nothing to suggest that anything much has changed recently.

This is a very poor showing for Old Moore.  I will no dwell on the above but if anyone disagrees with what I have written please feel free to comment.

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